Integrated Clinical Obesity Tool · v4.6 · AFO Framework · Lancet Commission 2025
ICOT AFO Diagnostic Profile
Professor Steven C. Boyages MBBS FRACP FAFPHM DDU PhD · EndoHormone Institute
Lancet Commission 2025 AFO — Anthropometry · Function · Organ
ℹ Clinical decision support only — not a substitute for clinical judgement. All staging is provisional pending formal prospective validation. No patient data is stored or transmitted. · Feedback & collaboration: steven.boyages@sydney.edu.au
1
Demographics — sex, age, ethnicity
▾
WC ≥ 94 cm (M) / ≥ 80 cm (F)
A
A — Anthropometry — anthropometry & body composition, 0–4
▾
Lancet Commission 2025 framework: ≥2 elevated measures confirm obesity. Fat mass index (FMI) from body composition analysis (BIS or DXA) counts as a fifth measure if available.
kg/m²
—
Class
Enter height & weight
Elevated ≥ 94 (M) / 80 (F)
WHR: —
WtHR: —
Elevated ≥ 0.50
Body Composition (BIS / DXA — if available)
—
Excess ♂≥7.0 · ♀≥9.0 kg/m²
A — Anthropometry score
0 / 4
F
F — Functional Limitation — WHO ICF-aligned, 0–4
▾
0
0 None1 Mild2 Moderate3 Severe4 Total
No limitation — usual work and daily activities without restriction.
F — Functional score
0 / 4
O
O — Organ Dysfunction — disease burden, 0–3
▾

Select all conditions directly attributable to excess adiposity. Score rises with number of affected organ systems.

O — Organ Dysfunction (KOSS-staged): Each domain scored 0–3 (Normal → At risk → Established → Severe). O score = highest single domain. Multiple mild conditions do not upstage. Analogous to the N stage in TNM.
O — Organ score
0 / 3
Complete all three sections above, then press to generate the AFO profile and clinical report
Awaiting input
Enter data below
A (Anthropometry) · F (Functional limitation) · O (Organ dysfunction) — the ICOT AFO profile.
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1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 A Anthropometry F Functional Limitation O Organ Dysfunction Stage 4 — Severe Stage 3 Stage 2 Stage 1 / 0
ICOT phenotype
—
The AFO profile shape reveals the dominant clinical burden.
A — Anthropometry F — Functional Limitation O — Organ Dysfunction
ICOT Staging
Domain Score Findings
AFO Profile — —
ICOT Stage — —
Clinical Recommendations

Enter data in the sections below.

Rubino F et al. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2025;13(3):221–262 · Ko TYL et al. Clin Obes. 2026;16(1):e70045 · ICOT v4.6 AFO
AFO Staging System — Presentation Guide  ·  Prof S.C. Boyages
AFO
A TNM-Inspired Staging System for Obesity
A Proposed Extension of the Lancet Commission 2025 Framework
Professor Steven C. Boyages  MBBS FRACP FAFPHM DDU PhD
EndoHormone Institute · Sydney Adventist Hospital · University of Sydney & ANU
A
Anthropometry
F
Functional Status
O
Organ Dysfunction
ICOT
Integrated Clinical Obesity Tool
Stage = max(F, O, min(A, 2))
Correspondence submitted to Lancet Diabetes & EndocrinologyOctober 2026

The Lancet 2025 Commission: A Critical Gap Identified

The need for a validated severity staging system
"A validated severity staging system [for obesity] is an important research priority."
Rubino F, Cummings DE, Eckel RH et al. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2025;13(3):221–262
The Pivotal Lancet 2025 Binary
Preclinical Obesity

Confirmed excess adiposity with preserved function of other tissues and organs

A ≥1 with O ≤1, F ≤1 (Stage 1–2)
Clinical Obesity

Excess adiposity that alters function of tissues, organs, or the whole individual

A ≥1 with O ≥2 or F ≥2 (Stage 2–4)
⚠️Gap: Existing systems (EOSS, KOSS) collapse all three domains into a single composite score — none encode the differential urgency between a patient driven primarily by excess adiposity versus one with established multi-organ dysfunction.
Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

The AFO Framework: Three Independent Axes

Analogous to TNM staging in oncology
TNM in oncology: Tumour size (T) · Nodal spread (N) · Metastasis (M) → AFO in obesity: Anthropometry (A) · Functional status (F) · Organ dysfunction (O)
A — Anthropometry

A0: BMI <27.5, <2 measures elevated

A1: Overweight 27.5–29.9, ≥2 measures

A2: Obesity I 30–34.9, ≥2 measures

A3: Obesity II 35–39.9, ≥2 measures

A4: Obesity III ≥40 BMI

Capped at 2 in formula: min(A,2)
≥2 of: BMI, WC, WHR, WtHR, FMI
F — Functional Status

F0: No limitation

F1: Mild — ADLs intact

F2: Moderate — work/household impaired

F3: Severe — largely housebound

F4: Total dependence

WHO ICF-aligned
Binding when F > min(A,2) and F > O
O — Organ Dysfunction

O0: No organ dysfunction

O1: At-risk / structural changes

O2: Established disease (T2DM, CVD)

O3: Severe / advanced (HFrEF, CKD G4–5)

Highest score across 8 KOSS domains
CV, glycaemia, renal, hepatic, respiratory, MSK, endocrine, other
Priority: O > F > A when tied
Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

ICOT Stage: From AFO Profile to Actionable Stage

Stage = max(F, O, min(A, 2)) · Dominant axis drives management
ICOT Stage = max( F,   O,   min(A, 2) )
Dominant axis: O > F > A when tied at same stage · Stage = maximum, not sum
0
Healthy
A0 F0 O0
A0 with F/O findings: not staged
1
Preclinical
A1, or O1 with A ≥1
No established organ/functional impact
2
Preclinical or clinical
A ≥2 alone (preclinical) or O2 / F2 (clinical)
3
Clinical
Severe functional dependence (F≥3) or advanced organ disease
4
Clinical
Total functional dependence (F=4) — cannot self-care
Lancet status is read from the AFO profile, not the stage number: clinical obesity = A ≥1 with O ≥2 or F ≥2. Stage 2 includes both preclinical (A-dominant) and clinical (O- or F-dominant) obesity.
Example AFO profiles → identical ICOT Stage, different priorities
A³F⁰O⁰
Stage 2A-dominant · preclinical

Weight loss focus — lifestyle/pharmacotherapy

A*F²O*
Stage 2F-dominant · clinical

Rehabilitation + functional support

A²F⁰O²
Stage 2O-dominant · clinical

Cardiometabolic disease management + MDT

Same ICOT Stage — three different management priorities, and one is preclinical
Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

AFO–ICOT Stage Lookup Matrix

ICOT Stage = max(F, O, min(A, 2))
Axis / ScoreO0
No dysfunction
O1
At-risk / structural
O2
Established disease
O3
Severe / advanced
Preclinical (O ≤1 and F ≤1)
Clinical (O ≥2 or F ≥2)
Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

ICOT Clinical Decision-Support Tool

Open access · this tool

The ICOT v4.6 calculator — this tool — provides open-access staging. Enter scores for A, F, and O axes to compute the ICOT Stage, dominant axis, management guidance, and the AFO Diagnostic Compass.

Three-axis
Assessment
ICOT Stage
Calculation
Trend
Tracking
Management
Guidance

Close this guide to return to the ICOT calculator and enter a patient's AFO scores.

Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

The AFO Diagnostic Compass

Visual 3D phenotyping: A / F / O axes plotted to reveal dominant driver
F Functional Status A Anthropometry O Organ Dysfunction 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 3 F-dominant A-dominant O-dominant ICOT Stage colour 0 1 2 3 4
Each patient's AFO profile plots as a triangle — dominant axis = furthest vertex from centre

What the Compass shows:

A axis — Anthropometric burden: BMI class + adiposity measure count

F axis — Functional limitation: ADL impairment grade 0–4

O axis — Organ dysfunction: KOSS-staged per-domain score 0–3

Dot colour = ICOT Stage 0–4 (green → dark red)

Two patients with identical ICOT Stage may lie in opposite compass zones — different management priorities

The Compass makes dominant-axis heterogeneity visible — populations with identical mean ICOT Stage may have entirely different AFO profiles and treatment needs.

Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

Three Essential Purposes of AFO/ICOT Staging

1Individual Patient Management

ICOT Stage communicates severity across clinicians and settings

Dominant axis directs intervention: A→weight loss; F→rehabilitation; O→cardiometabolic MDT

Reproducible basis for monitoring treatment response over time

2Population Risk Stratification

Stage distributions expose high-O-axis burden cohorts missed by weight-centric tools

The patient with HTN + T2DM + OSA managed in silos — never identified as Clinical Obesity

Enables surveillance and health system planning by dominant phenotype

3Clinical Trial Design

LEADER, EMPEROR-Reduced, CREDENCE, SELECT — enrolled on single-axis criteria

Dominant-axis stratification identifies: for whom is multi-organ protection greatest?

Supports indication expansion and sample-size reduction for stage-specific analyses

Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

Validation Status

NHANES 2017–2018 reanalysis · October 2026
⚠️Results shown in earlier versions of this guide (v4.5 and before: n = 5,533; AUROC 0.707; 3.6-fold Stage 2 gradient; 64.1% clinical) have been withdrawn. They came from a scoring file with coding errors and a composite outcome that contained staging inputs.
Current position

A corrected, reproducible reanalysis applying the published AFO criteria is complete and is being prepared for peer review. Results will be posted here once published.

AFO/ICOT staging remains provisional pending independent prospective validation with incident outcomes and mortality linkage.

Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

Clinical Implications & Invitation to Collaborate

Patient-Level: Personalised Management

A-dominant → optimise weight loss pharmacotherapy or bariatric referral

F-dominant → rehabilitation, physiotherapy, occupational therapy

O-dominant → multidisciplinary cardiometabolic disease management

System-Level: Identify Hidden Complexity

High-O-axis patients managed in specialist silos without coordinated care.

AFO/ICOT provides the shared staging language to trigger multidisciplinary review.

Research: Fix Enrolment Heterogeneity

GLP-1/SGLT2 RCTs enrolled by BMI or single comorbidity — averaging benefit across AFO phenotypes.

Dominant-axis stratification at enrolment would enable stage-specific efficacy analysis.

Invitation to the Field

Independent validation in diverse clinical cohorts is invited

Prospective cohort studies with incident outcomes and mortality linkage

Dominant-axis stratification in existing RCT datasets (subgroup analysis)

NHANES 2017–2018 reanalysis code available on request

steven.boyages@sydney.edu.au →
Boyages SC · Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026

Key Messages

1

AFO encodes three independent axes — Anthropometry, Functional status, Organ dysfunction — as a TNM-inspired profile notation aligned with the Lancet 2025 framework.

2

ICOT Stage = max(F, O, min(A, 2)). Dominant axis (O > F > A) drives management direction: identical stages carry different clinical priorities.

3

Lancet status is read from the AFO profile: clinical obesity = confirmed adiposity with O ≥2 or F ≥2. Stage 2 contains both preclinical and clinical obesity.

4

Validation is in progress: a corrected NHANES 2017–2018 reanalysis is in preparation for peer review, and earlier reported results have been withdrawn.

5

Open access clinical tool available in this calculator. Independent validation in diverse cohorts is invited.

Boyages SCLancet Diabetes & EndocrinologySubmitted October 2026
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